Blowback Analysis

Hype & marketing permeate modern daily life.

In public affairs & government, assorted interests argue for their views: best-case examples buttress their position, potential costs are minimized.

Use of military force (whether called "war" or "keeping the peace") is serious & potentially deadly. Decisionmaking processes should be methodical, not driven by hype & spin. Deployment decisions should include blowback analysis.

What potential worst-case scenarios can be linked to assorted options? What are the costs to doing nothing? Can we protect against counteroffensive, and at what cost?

Paths of action & inaction can each be costly - are we prepared to pay the expected price? Blowback analysis is essential. We should not be caught flatfooted, claiming surprise in the midst of failure.


"I don't think anybody could have predicted..."

  -- US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice (on enemies using hijacked airplanes as missiles);   16 May 2002

1994:
Bestselling novel "Debt of Honor" by Tom Clancy depicts a revenge-seeking pilot using a commercial Boeing 747 airliner to destroy the U.S. Capitol Building, killing the U.S. President and most of the nation's leadership.

1999 (two years before Sept. 11 2001 attacks):
"Sociology & Psychology of Terrorism" (link) -- U.S. Government 1999 report which discussed expected "spectacular" al-Qaida airplane strikes against U.S. targets.

March 2001
Nationally broadcast fictional Fox TV show "The Lone Gunmen" portrays the attempted crashing of a hijacked airliner into New York's World Trade Center.

America Grows Up

The Swedish Poodle Goes to War

In Stockholm today, our Swedish Riksdag debates collaborating in Libya's war. The intervention plans are costly & wrong.

Colonial powers have already discarded the rationale of protecting civilians through a "no fly zone" -- mission creep has morphed operations toward arming militant factions, regime change, erosion of sovereignty, and imposing imperialist controls making Libya a colony again.

Intervention can quickly bite us in the ass -- why create dangerous enemies? Where's analysis of potential blowback? Such costs must be considered. We don't fight for Libyan freedom or dignity. Rather, we want part of the looting, and our Swedish arms exporters are itching to show-off their weaponry...

We obey the USA like a pet.



Give a sweet goodie to Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt.
Such a well-trained little fellow!

Foreign Minister Carl Bildt is on display too!

"Luck of the Irish" = Bad Luck

Ireland needs more bailout funding. Why? Because their growth over the last 15 years was built on a "lowest taxes" model and non-sustainable.

Ireland sought to attract business investment & clever individuals by undercutting competitors. Ireland's corporate tax rate is 12.5% (compared with 28% in the UK, 35%+ in the USA, 26% in Sweden). They reportedly (link) were also highly forgiving with corporate "administrative expense" allowances. The Irish boom drained resources from elsewhere, and they hoped to generate enough new value-added synergies to operate at low cost.   They failed.

Now they're saddled with thousands of deteriorating development projects. Indebtedness forces Dublin to beg competitors for assistance. Pity the Irish...?

Plan Ahead

Plan ahead: April Fool tomorrow!

Hey Richie !

<<   Policeman growls:   >>

Mr Rich Man
cut my income:
I'll kick yo' ass
fo' family!

Mr Rich Man
touch his doughnut:
- he'll whack you
cause it's fun!

Heads I Win -- Tails You Lose

People slowly get wiser -- we're being fleeced. The wealthy & powerful grab "hard earned" profits for lavish lifestyles, yet hen their speculation fails -- the public is forced to pay. We pay for their mistakes.

Big bankers & industrialists have now squeezed national bailouts and huge repeated subsidies from the public purse. But if they rob & cheat us, and cannot pay, they should be convicted, stripped of all assets, and brought to justice. On public trial we'd see how vulgar & shameless they are...

The nuclear energy lobby continues to claim competitive costing as they suck out profits. But if operations fail to go perfectly, they'll leave us to organize cleanup, pay for decommissioning, and shoulder damages. Fukushima's fallout is generating huge costs in many industries. The nation's reputation suffers; refugee numbers swell; property values have collapsed. Others devastated by the tsunami are neglected while in great need. Don't get fooled again!

The Libyans !

Americans were warned by Reagan to "Beware the Libyans" !!
(why their ill will? ...unmentioned...) Supposed bloodthirsty Libyan terror teams were exposed in a 1985 popular film.

Back to the Future Now -- Obama's military connives with friendly colonial powers, destroying Libya's government facilities & forces.


  Now is The Future!

Keeping Power

Ungrateful masses attack their government for assorted reasons. Recent popular unrest in various parts of the world also highlights assorted methods used by governments to maintain their hold ("iron grip") on power.

The following is a partial, growing & unranked list of government methods to keep power.

This list can be useful for oppressed people seeking to promote popular change. (Agents of scummy governments: we are deciphering your tricks... please read no further).

-- intelligence services (Mukhabarat) provide early warning about dissent & dissidents

-- cultivate individual self-censorship through fear of recrimination and reprisal (arrest, torture, murder, etc.)

-- significant & well-publicized brutality generates fear & self-censorship

-- reshuffle top ministers or key personnel

-- pledge to hold free elections within 18 months

-- promise not to seek reelection

-- pass power to "A New Generation" (child of the leader)

-- institute public order laws with draconian fines & imprisonment

-- monitor & control the press; limit access of foreign press corps

-- treat internet & telephone network access as a privilege, to be turned-off when threatening

-- do as little as possible to promise justice for past misdeeds; cultivate the aura that government operates with impunity and can do anything

-- discuss amending the constitution

-- stall for time by creating diversion

-- stall for time by creating committees to study assorted problems; maintain control of committee composition, schedule, agenda, and reporting

-- blame foreign or minority elements for troubles

-- condemn individual enemies for use of drugs, or sexual or economic crimes

-- coopt opponents via government employment

-- encourage opponents toward foreign exile

-- equate criticism with dissent & disloyalty

-- watch the watchers: police, intel, military, political colleagues

-- express shock when opponents are murdered, dismembered, etc.

-- lease land to imperial power for airfield, naval port or military base (though this increases possibilities of foreign intervention)

-- allow the development of tame 'opposition' groups, fracturing opposition energies

-- blame revolutionary groups, 'armed gangs' or paramilitary forces beyond government control for disruption or outrageous attacks on opposition

-- promise investigation of abuses, but require substantial proofs & evidence

-- ally with organized criminal groups

-- share crumbs of corruption, coopting key people

-- make defamation and treason major crimes

-- utilize harassment, interrogation & detention without charge for social control

-- tightly control the judiciary; delay trials indefinitely

--

Schmuck Revolution ?!

"People Power" changed government in the Philippines

Ukrainians had an "Orange Revolution"

"The Sidi Bouzid Revolt" led to Tunisia's government collapsing - President Ben Ali & family escaped hurriedly to Saudi Arabia...

Civil resistance by the Egyptian people also promised change. But the "25th January Revolution" (ثورة ٢٥ يناير) thus far has been a Schmuck Revolution.

President Mubarak was allowed to resign from office and withdraw with family to the luxuries of Sharm el-Sheikh. He's now reportedly too ill to answer for his government's ongoing violence, murder, torture & corruption.

Most who marched & risked their lives for change know:
- momentum is lost
- the worst scum escaped justice
- media is unreliable
- reform is now a controlled drip
- bureaucratic tyranny continues
- Spy Chief Omar Suleiman is unhealthy for Egypt

Some believe:
- Egypt has a whore government under foreign control

Some Egyptians of course are in denial.



----------------
The term "Schmuck Revolution" can be applied to the handover of political power from USA President George W. Bush to Barack Obama in the midst of national bailout for banks, manufacturers and financial brokerages. The system was on the verge of collapse, yet those big businesses and their executives were funneled public funds and allowed to continue operations. People indebted to the banks (the great majority of the American people) were forced to prop-up the capitalist system and the financier executives.

Hail the Groundhog

Groundhog Day is every 2nd Feb
but each summer, Punxsutawney Pennsylvania (USA) holds a Groundhog Festival. It ain't what it used to be, when they chomped them hogs...



news article above (link)

Punxsutawney Groundhog Club
http://www.groundhog.org

Punxsutawney Groundhog Festival
http://www.groundhogfestival.com

Bushed

George W. Bush & his colleagues piously waged war in Iraq and Afghanistan "to help" local people. Those people still need help - many are homeless, whole neighborhoods often lack power and water. Many in those nations are injured, ill, or cannot read.

Too few Bush buddies volunteer to help.

Those scum slyly "volunteered" the rest of us. They themselves enjoy luxury -- feasting on sacrifice & slaughter.

Kill 'Em ! ...ain't ok

Our most recent 'Coalition of the Willing' now crusades in Libya, raining fire from the sky in the form of Tomohawk missiles and other instruments of death.

We're deputized to protect civilians, but sadly kill some...

Our technology targets the Libyan military from far away -- killing them regardless if they're now making war.

These young people are perhaps conscripts. They are part of local communities; their deaths will be mourned & perhaps avenged. If we imagine all those foreign military people are fair targets, surely we should recognize our own military people become more threatened.

Our great political leadership destroys retreating units who've never seen action. Those rules of engagement consign our own soldiers to greater threat of death; brutality is forced on everyone. War is ugly, whoever it's aimed at.

Dance Wit Da Devil

The Arab League supported a "No Fly Zone" around Libya to protect Libyan civilians. They now complain that allowing a "No Fly Zone" was not preemptive permission to bombard assorted Western-defined targets. Wide-ranging military strikes continue.

Classic outmaneuvering.


Government compound (Tripoli, Libya) bombed 20 March 2011
The attack echoes previous bombing 25 years ago, 15 April 1986

The UN General Assembly clearly condemned all such operations: "No State or group of States has the right to intervene or interfere in any form or for any reason whatsoever in the internal and external affairs of other States." (A/RES/36/103; 9 Dec 1981)

"Libyan rebels" to some extent have been created & supplied from abroad. US & UK leaders claim Libyan regime change is not their goal. Only a few nations agreed to intervene in Libya's internal affairs, and the operations are contrary to international law. Neither did the Obama administration seek support from the US Congress. In any case, can outsiders impose a favorable leadership?

Colonial powers again wage war with no clear exit strategy. Might Libyan loyalist forces now fight back in unconventional ways around the world? Soldiers on all sides lose their youth and are horribly killed or brutalized; cultures & communities are destroyed; common folk get crushed.

Flim Flam Fone

Would grandma be cheated on her telephone payment plan?

Telephone company spokespersons would answer "no" - there's never been a richer range of choice for consumers.

Everyone else understands "yes" - there are dozens of plans locking Grandmother into high-priced lengthy contracts for services she doesn't want or need, and cannot afford.

It's hugely difficult to make informed choice. Not accidentally - this is deliberate corporate looting. Granny's simply another sheep fleeced by shameless business behavior. If it ain't illegal, sales forces must bamboozle granny for their own survival. If it is illegal, corporate lobbyists seek change in regulation. Goodbye Grandma.

Too Easily Surprised by Disaster

Leaders around the world seek to reassure us, the common people, that they are expert & know best what to do. The wars that they involve us in are necessary. Our infrastructural investments (created under contract to their friends) are safe & efficient.

But sometimes we are lied to. And too often the leaders are stupid.

Fomer US National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice claimed (16 May 2002) nobody could have predicted al-Qaeda would "use an airplane as a missile" -- she was stupid, and failed to do her job, but nonetheless soon got promoted.

Now we are told, in the midst of Fukushima's looming nuclear disaster, that similar reactors are wholly safe. We are told it's astronomically unlikely a magnitude 9 earthquake, or a large tsunami, will occur again or happen near us. But what of other accidents? Dangers include an asteroid strike, or a huge land slip, or a nuclear weapon of the USA, Russia, Israel, etc. detonating accidentally -- any of these could trigger further earthquake or tsunami... If such disaster happens, our dipshit politicians will say "oops" or "nobody could have imagined..."

Jackal for America's Warlords - O'Reilly

Bill O'Reilly is more than a journalist. He's a wart on the eye of America. If you know nothing about him, enjoy your good fortune & move on.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Breitbart

Andrew Breitbart is a propagandeer. His work is controversial, consistently against disadvantaged people. With ambitions to outshine Rupert Murdoch, his talents seem wasted as a right-wing brownnoser. I'm reminded of Texas Congressman Louis Gohmert, insinuating himself into every event. A poison creeper...

Jackal for America's Warlords - Novak

Robert Novak was a reporter & commentator who acted as a political hatchet man for highly-partisan elements in the George W. Bush administration. His intrusion disclosed names & details of key US intelligence assets, threatening lives and destroying careers. He should have been tried for treason, but escaped indictment. He died a few years later from brain cancer.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Coulter

Ann Coulter transitioned from life as a lawyer to successfully positioning herself as a lightning rod for controversy. Coulter's attention-grabbing deflects America's public from substantive national problems, leading instead to impassioned discussion of the trite & banal. A useful celebrity servant to America's warlords, with homes in Manhattan & Palm Beach, her grand ambitions demand additional rewards. Stay tuned...

Jackal for America's Warlords - Hannity

It ain't enough to label Sean Hannity as a crass opportunist, or a jackal-for-hire. This guy is both sour & shameless. Even glancing at him invokes misery. Pity his mama!

Jackal for America's Warlords - Ailes

Roger Ailes, President of Fox News, worked as a media & political advisor to Nixon, Reagan, the elder George Bush, etc. He was a key player in the 1996 founding of Fox News. Accused of having "two speeds - attack & destroy" (link), Ailes divisive successes now reportedly trouble his boss Rupert Murdoch, who may see his own legacy characterized as partisan, truculent & chauvinistic.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Rove

Smarmy.

Ultra creepy.

Warlords waste our world- we wrestle with stooges.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Atwater

Harvey LeRoy "Lee" Atwater was a hardhitting below-the-belt political operative for Reagan and the elder Bush. After steering Bush's election in 1988 (with the aid of Willie Horton and assorted unsubstantiated claims against his opposition candidate's family), Atwater became Chair of the Republican National Committee.

In 1990 Atwater was diagnosed with brain cancer, and near the end of his life sought to apologize to assorted people. He claimed to be confronting his own foolish insensitivity, but he was strongly distrusted owing to his previous backstabbing. Atwater also cited "a spiritual vacuum at the heart of American society" -- but some believed his conciliatory efforts were simply spin. He died in 1991 aged just 40.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Mansour

Rebecca A. Mansour (link) has been dubbed "Sarah Palin's Brain" for her communications advice -- she reportedly leases-out her skills via Aries Petra Consulting.

While warlords waste our world, we wrestle with stooges.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Powell

US Secretary of State Colin Powell argued vehemently before the United Nations (5 Feb 2003) that invading Iraq was the only way to neutralize multiple threatening weapons.

"My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions. What we're giving you are facts..." (link)

But Powell's presentation was exaggeration & lies. Due to misplaced trust in jackal Powell, thousands of people died, and costs continue to skyrocket. Deception under his authority besmirched his nation's honor, and this memory continues to subvert people's trust in government.

Jackal for America's Warlords - Tenet

George Tenet is a wunderkind (appointed age 44) former CIA Director, later responsible for Iraq background intelligence deception leading to war. Because alleged US torturing of detainees occurred under his direction, he risks arrest if traveling outside the USA. He's privy to many secrets, as yet undivulged. George W. Bush rewarded him with the US Presidential Medal of Freedom, but Tenet is as yet young and ambitious, requiring funds to grow. He's reportedly now a New York investment banker.

The Butcher of Bahrain?

Foreign powers manipulate Bahrain. How much is Bahrain's King responsible for excess, outrage & butchery? The world watches.

Politician's Weasel Promises

Japan Needs Help !

As is common with many disasters, official response is far too slow to Japan's earthquake / tsunami / nuclear explosion(s). And as government underestimates the scope of disaster and imminent dangers, suffering is magnified, deaths multiply needlessly.

Best wishes to those struggling. We pray for your quick recovery.